Friday, October 31, 2008

Exclusive: Bestselling “Climate Confusion” author talks with Chilling Effect!

Continued...

TCE: Speaking of curbing CO2, we’ve been guilted into thinking that we need to sacrifice many of the advancements and indulgences that currently enjoy. But you’ve got a chapter in your book about the benefits that fossil fuels have brought to humanity.

Spencer: Yes, that’s right. Man-made global warming isn’t what threatens the world’s poor–it’s the stupid ideas people have for supposedly ‘fixing’ the global warming problem that threatens them. It’s no accident that worries over global warming are almost entirely restricted to the worlds wealthy, those who have the extra time to invent things to worry about. Meanwhile, it is indisputable that disease, starvation, infant mortality, and a host of other human ills have been greatly alleviated through access to abundant and affordable energy.

Affluence also leads to lower population growth, something you would think the Greens would be in favor of. It is also indisputable that environmental restrictions have killed millions of people…mainly children…through international pressure to not use safe and effective pesticides that America and Europe used many years ago to essentially eradicate malaria. Are these the people we should now be listening to on the subject of global warming and what to do about it?

TCE: Both presidential candidates have bought in to the idea that climate change poses a serious planetary threat and both have advocated aggressive political action that will have high associated costs. If you could select one item of scientific evidence to present to the candidates that you think best disproves the global warming hype what would it be?

Spencer: I would show them the huge disconnect between the models, which are highly sensitive and produce a lot of warming, and the actual observations published by a number of researchers over the years, which strongly suggest that these climate models are seriously in error.

Sadly the presidential candidates are relying far too much on the reports by the IPCC, a body which has used sloppy science to further specific political and policy goals. It also unfortunate that several professional societies in the U.S. have made political statements in support of the IPCC.

I find it astounding that the IPCC has ignored the potential role of natural climate variability in global warming. In any other realm of science we are careful to look for alternative explanations for some phenomenon…but today, mankind is the only allowable reason for climate change.

I predict that the IPCC experience will end up being the worst case of scientific malpractice in history. Not that the scientists are at fault, I think they have just been led around by some politically savvy, almost charismatic, leaders.

If the new President and Congress are not careful, the resulting ‘sub-prime science meltdown’ we are headed for will have caused carbon dioxide regulations which will make the current financial crisis seen puny in comparison.

TCE: Dr. Spencer, thanks so much for your time. Good luck on the rest of your tour and your efforts!

End.

"Dr. Spencer has a totally new theory. I just can't believe what I am reading. What is he trying to do? I am confused. I'll be researching on this topic."

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Exclusive: Bestselling “Climate Confusion” author talks with Chilling Effect!

Continued...

TCE: Is it because of these natural cycles that we’re seeing reports of record cold temps in parts of California, Oregon and other states and why glaciers are growing in Alaska?

Spencer: Well, I think that is indeed possible. And our latest research supports what some meteorologists have been saying for a long time…that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) might actually be the main culprit in climate change. We have recently used a simple climate model to show how the PDO can, by itself, reproduce most of the temperature behavior over the last century, including two-thirds of the warming, simply through the PDO’s modulation of global average cloudiness. And why do I think the PDO affects global cloudiness? Because we have the satellite observations to prove it.

The recent cooling we have seen might be evidence that we have entered into a new, negative phase of the PDO. If so, we could be in for 30 more years of no warming, or even some cooling, a gradual return of more extensive sea ice in the Arctic, and glaciers that start growing again.

TCE: Your book ‘Climate Confusion’ made the New York Times bestseller list several months ago. Do you think your message is getting through?

Spencer: Yes, I do. I find that many of our citizens – possibly a majority — are quite distrustful of the claim that global warming is mostly the fault of mankind. And our latest work supports their gut instinct. But despite two published papers we have out there supporting our view that the IPCC has overestimated climate sensitivity, the public is largely unaware of our work because the mainstream media refuses to report on anything that contradicts Al Gore, James Hansen, and the IPCC. So, instead, I now have to take my message directly to the people. I’m giving more lectures, as many as 3 per week, including at10 different colleges and universities this fall.

TCE: How’s the response?

Spencer: It’s been very good so far. Most students are interested to hear that there are a few scientists out there who don’t believe in a man-made global warming Armageddon. I do get the occasional emotional and irrational folks who don’t seem to want to hear any good news, but for the most part everyone seems eager to hear another point of view. Those who disagree seem to be immune to evidence…their faith in Gore’s and Hansen’s new religion blinds them to everything else. Their desire to substantially reduce our carbon dioxide emissions has ignored that fact that, until some new energy technology is developed, we are stuck with fossil fuels as our primary energy source…probably for decades. Yet I still get questions like, “But we can’t continue to pump CO2 into the atmosphere forever, can we?” Well obviously, no, and we won’t. But the new technology we need to reduce CO2 emissions by, say, 50% does not exist, and cannot be simply legislated into existence.Continued...

"I have to read this book. This is my first time to come across this new theory."

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Exclusive: Bestselling “Climate Confusion” author talks with Chilling Effect!

New York Times best selling author Dr. Roy Spencer was in the nation’s capital last week to talk about his book Climate Confusion.

Spencer spared a few minutes out of his schedule to talk with The Chilling Effect about the book and the current state of the debate:

TCE: Let’s start off with a very simple question: is the earth getting warmer?

Spencer: The way I phrase it is this: the Earth’s average temperature has not warmed in about 7 years. So, we are all now waiting to see if the warming returns.

TCE: Your position on global warming is in pretty stark contrast to your NASA colleague James Hansen and you talk about him throughout the book. How do your views differ?

Spencer: The major difference between us comes down to one issue: climate sensitivity. Hansen appears to believe that the climate system is very fragile…what we call high climate sensitivity. He bases this mostly on what he thinks happened on the Earth hundreds of thousands, or even millions of years ago.

But I prefer to go by what we know the climate system is telling us TODAY, from NASA’s Earth-observation satellites, rather than what we think might have happened in the distant past. And we have recently found, from five years of our newest measurements, evidence of a very IN-sensitive climate system…less sensitive, in fact, than any of the IPCC climate models show in any five year period in their global warming simulations. This work has been submitted for possible publication in Geophysical Research Letters, and it could have a huge impact on the modeling community.

If the climate system is as insensitive as the satellite data suggest, then manmade global warming is mostly a false alarm. But it also means that the warming we’ve seen in the last 100 years must be mostly natural, not manmade, most likely part of a natural cycle. Continued...

"This is totally different.I am interested to know more."

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Global Warming Bypasses Alaska as Glaciers Grow

By P.J. Gladnick

Continued...Does it mean anything?

Nobody knows. Climate is constantly shifting. And even if the past year was a signal of a changing future, Molnia said, it would still take decades to make itself noticeable in Alaska's glaciers.

Rivers of ice flow slowly. Hundreds of feet of snow would have to accumulate at higher elevations to create enough pressure to stall the current glacial retreat and start a new advance. Even if the glaciers started growing today, Molnia said, it might take up to 100 years for them to start steadily rolling back down into the valleys they've abandoned.

"It's different time scales," he said. "We're just starting to understand."

As strange it might seem, Alaska's glaciers could appear to be shrinking for some time while secretly growing. Molnia said there are a few glaciers in the state now where constant snow accumulations at higher elevations are causing them to thicken even as their lower reaches follow the pattern of retreat fueled by the global warming of recent decades.

Al Gore, please take note. You might have to give rebates on those carbon credits you've been flacking.

"Well, I take this as a positive news since the expected global meltdown did not happened. I believe we should be thankful for this turn of events but, we should not be complacent. Any thing can change and before we know it, we are already too late."

Monday, October 27, 2008

Global Warming Bypasses Alaska as Glaciers Grow

By P.J. Gladnick

It looks like Mother Nature just hasn't gotten the word from the global warming alarmists. Instead of warming up and shrinking the Alaskan glaciers, just the opposite is now happening as explained in this report in the Anchorage Daily News:

Two hundred years of glacial shrinkage in Alaska, and then came the winter and summer of 2007-2008.

Unusually large amounts of winter snow were followed by unusually chill temperatures in June, July and August.

"In mid-June, I was surprised to see snow still at sea level in Prince William Sound," said U.S. Geological Survey glaciologist Bruce Molnia. "On the Juneau Icefield, there was still 20 feet of new snow on the surface of the Taku Glacier in late July. At Bering Glacier, a landslide I am studying, located at about 1,500 feet elevation, did not become snow free until early August.

"In general, the weather this summer was the worst I have seen in at least 20 years."

Never before in the history of a research project dating back to 1946 had the Juneau Icefield witnessed the kind of snow buildup that came this year. It was similar on a lot of other glaciers too.

You mean we don't have to toss billions of dollars at a global warming problem that doesn't exist? I guess that is why the North Pole didn't become ice free as predicted by many in the MSM earlier this year. At least this article is honest in that you can't take a few years of either warming or cooling and extrapolate a long term trend from that: Continued...

"This is something contradictory to what was predicted."

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Mayon trail run tackles global warming

Continued...Winners

Ballester said most of the runners were used to road races on smooth and flat pavements, making the MTR really different.

The winners, who came from different running teams, were—Male: 1st, Elmer Sabal (1:09:30); 2nd, Allan Ballester (1:10:08); 3rd, Cresenciano Sabal (1:10:35). Female: 1st, Leszl Gitarueles (1:32:26); 2nd, Merlita Arias (1:45:07); 3rd. Ellen Tolentino (1:49:08).

The oldest runner was 71-year-old Vicente Caurez of Los Baños, Laguna, who was well-applauded when he finished the race standing strong.

Trail running as an adventure sport is more popular in Europe, according to Ballester. He said Albay’s trail run opened doors for the promotion of this endurance sport.

Provincial tourism officer Joe Briones said the trail run could be held annually and could draw more tourists.

These days, many tourists are looking for new sites for ecotourism and adventure sports. Briones said it would be good to have them both.

Yves Eli Yu, MTR project chair and vice president of JCI-Legazpi, said the trail run also sought to promote awareness of climate change.

Global warming

He said runners in the event and the spectators were made to realize the effects of global warming by making them experience nature.

“Taking part in this trail run is like touching Mayon’s soul. Your run toward its lava front reminds you of the lahar that killed and displaced over a thousand people at the height of Supertyphoon ‘Reming,’” Ballester said.

With the damage and floods caused by Reming on Nov. 30, 2006, Albay officials linked the disaster to the changing climate.

A2C2 campaign

After the tragedy, the provincial government launched the “Albay in Action for Climate Change” (A2C2) campaign, a pioneering local climate change adaptation in the Asia Pacific.

Yu said the JCI-Legazpi was jubilant that the MTR took place a day after 10 lawmakers from Asia, Europe, Africa and South America signed the Manila Declaration on Climate Change, which calls on rich nations to create a global fund to help reduce disaster risks brought by rising sea temperatures.

The five-page document, titled “The Manila Call for Action of Parliamentarians on Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation,” was issued at the close of a two-day consultative meeting at Makati Shangri-La Hotel.

Yves said that for developing countries like the Philippines, it would be a big help to start small through awareness campaigns like the MTR. End.

"The climate has really changed. In fact, as I write, it's hot here and this is very unlikely since it should be cold months. Campaign on global warming should really be intensified.Many people are still naive of this issue.In our own simple way, we can start helping ease this global problem.Like taking care of our trees and planting more."

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Mayon trail run tackles global warming

By Ephraim Aguilar

Southeast Asian Games gold medalist Allan Ballester looked straight at Mayon Volcano’s amazing peak as he treaded a trail.

Ballester, 34, is one of those who took part in the first Mayon Trail Run (MTR) in Albay Sunday. The event was part of an awareness campaign against global warming.

More than 150 runners negotiated a shaggy hill laden with manmade obstacles, a river crossing, and a pile of volcanic rocks in the 5-kilometer fun run and 18-km adventure foot race.

The race was organized by the Junior Chamber International (JCI) and Northface, an international brand of sports apparel and outdoor equipment. JCI is a worldwide federation of young leaders and entrepreneurs whose members are more popularly known as Jaycees.

Even for the most experienced runners, some of them holding national and international titles, the MTR was one of the most grueling and unusual races.

The race started from the Peñaranda Park in the city to the top of Ligñon Hill in Daraga town, then down to a newly created back trail traversing the Yawa River to the Bonga Gully, one of the main pathways of volcanic debris swept by heavy rains.

Reaching the lava front, the racers made a U-turn and climbed back to Ligñon.

In his 14-year running career, Ballester said it was only in the MTR that his race plan became erratic.

“In my past races, I would stick to one race plan till finish. But here, I had to change it because the trail was packed with unexpected challenges in every segment,” he said.

The race also required great endurance and the application of different skills, he said.

“I just kept looking at Mayon’s peak as it felt like the sandy and rocky trail never ended. We had to climb rough terrain and slippery wooden stairs, and cross a river,” Ballester said shortly after he crossed the finish line.Continued...

"I had the opportunity to visit Albay and I was really captivated by the Mayon Volcanoe. It has really a perfect cone. I just can't imagine the artistic hands that made it. It's really unbelievable."

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Use Of Alternative And Renewable Energy Can Reduce Effects Of Global Warming

The use of alternative and renewable energy by industries has been identified as one of the most effective ways of reducing the effects of global warming and greenhouse gases.

Deputy Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Fadillah Yusof said excessive use of energy in industrial areas had contributed 80 percent to the effects of global warming.

"It will be good if we can adopt alternative and renewable energy. As a developing country, we cannot stop the growth of industries as they provide huge employment opportunities.

"We need to protect the environment while at the same time ensure continuous socio-economic growth," he said when opening the 2nd National Conference On Extreme Weather and Climate Change: Understanding Science and Risk Education here today.

Fadillah said his ministry was also studying the use of building materials that had contributed to global warming.

"The use of mirrors in buildings will refract heat resulting in rise of temperature. We must consider using building materials that are environment friendly."

He added the ministry was keen on providing grants for research on the use of alternative and renewable energy aimed at reducing the use of fossil fuel, the main agent of pollution.

Industrialization cannot be stopped. Also, developing countries need to be industrialized. Hence, we should never forget that our natural resources are renewable but depletable.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

California releases global warming plan

By SAMANTHA YOUNG

Continued from previous post...Some businesses have criticized the board for its September economic analysis that found California's economy would grow under its global warming plan. A business coalition known as the AB32 Implementation Group estimates the proposed regulations would spike electricity rates by 11 percent and natural gas rates by 9 percent.

They also say requiring companies to initially buy their way into a carbon trading market would amount to a tax on struggling businesses.

"The last thing California companies need in this challenging economic climate is billions in more taxes," Amisha Patel, a policy advocate at the California Chamber of Commerce, said in a statement. "California is already one of the highest tax states in the country."

Regulators are proposing to cut carbon emissions by nearly 30 percent of the projected emissions by 2020. That's about a 15 percent cut from today's levels.

In addition to a cap-and-trade market, regulators in June proposed strategies that would require oil and gas refineries to produce less-polluting fuels, utilities to generate a third of their electricity from renewable sources like wind and solar by 2020 and auto manufacturers to build cleaner-burning cars.

Local governments also will be asked to build residential developments near public transportation, shops and businesses in an effort to reduce the number of miles Californians drive.

Source

Friday, October 17, 2008

California releases global warming plan

By SAMANTHA YOUNG

Continued from previous post...One of the most contentious elements of the plan is the reliance on a cap-and-trade program to help power plants, oil and gas refiners, manufacturers and other major polluters lower their output of carbon emissions. The idea is to allow businesses that cannot cut their emissions because of cost or technical hurdles to buy emission credits from companies that have achieved cleaner emissions.

While a trading scheme is embraced by many businesses and environmental groups as a cost-effective way of gaining emission reductions, some Democrats and health advocates are concerned businesses could shirk their responsibilities and continue polluting the air.

In the board's latest proposal, regulators suggested businesses could get some emission credits for free, but polluters eventually would have to buy into the market. They also suggested they would limit so-called offset projects—such as planting trees—that companies could undertake to achieve their obligations.

Regulators said final decisions would be made as they design the market program in the next few years, disappointing some environmentalists who had hoped they would finally address many of the difficult and most contentious rules for implementing the plan.

"The features of a well designed cap and trade program are pretty clear, and they could have been much more specific in their recommendations," said Chris Busch, a climate economist at the Union of Concerned Scientists.

Air Resources Board Chairwoman Mary Nichols explained that regulators first wanted to think through the implications a market would have on the industries asked to cut back their emissions before addressing the specifics.

"We're facing the reality at the moment of a very uncertain business climate," Nichols said.Continued...


I agree to the comment of Chris Busch. In order for the plan to succeed, specific rules or guidelines should be in place.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

California releases global warming plan

By SAMANTHA YOUNG

For California to reach its global warming goals, the country's most populous state must cut greenhouse gas emissions by about four tons per person.

To do that will require a sweeping set of mandates for cleaner cars, more renewable energy and a cap on the state's major polluters, according to a final plan released Wednesday by the California Air Resources Board.

It's the first comprehensive effort of any state to reduce greenhouse gases in the absence of federal regulation and comes as California and the country are facing a financial crisis. Wednesday's final plan, which builds upon a previous draft released in June on ways to meet the state's landmark global warming law signed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger two years ago, is scheduled for a board vote in December.

"Despite a difficult economy, it is important that we move forward on our environmental goals, which is why I am pleased that in California we have put together a plan for reducing our greenhouse gas emissions that also boosts our economy," Schwarzenegger said in a statement.

The plan will be implemented over the next few years through lengthy regulations that haven't yet been written, so many of the details and impacts remain unknown. An analysis released by the board last month suggested California's economy would grow at a faster rate under the proposed measures than if it did nothing to cut emissions blamed for global warming.Continued...

This is good news. We will be able to preserve our natural resources that is very important in the long run.